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Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211
10/11/12
Dick Morris says that if an incumbent cannot reach 50% in the polls, he'll likely lose.
So I tabulated Obama's last three poll numbers by state.
| State | Last 3 Polls | Projected Winner |
| COLORADO | 47, 46, 49 | Romney |
| CONNECTICUT | 51, 54, 54 | Obama |
| FLORIDA | 48, 49, 46 | Romney |
| IOWA | 49, 48, 51 | Romney |
| MICHIGAN | 49, 46, 48 | Romney |
| MINNESOTA | 53, 48, 51 | Obama |
| NEVADA | 51, 47, 47 | Romney |
| NEW HAMPSHIRE | 48, 47, 54 | Romney |
| NEW MEXICO | 54, 51, 51 | Obama |
| NORTH CAROLINA | 48, 41, 47 | Romney |
| OHIO | 48, 45, 51 | Romney |
| PENNSYLVANIA | 51, 50, 47 | Romney |
| VIRGINIA | 47, 51, 50 | Romney |
| WISCONSIN | 50, 51, 49 | Obama |
Let's project that he'll win the state if he gets to 50% and lose otherwise. If you build the map using this data, Romney wins the 2012 election with 327 electoral votes!
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